IATA: Air Cargo Demand up 6.0% in May; Air Passenger Demand Falls 2.2% in May

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for May 2026 global passenger demand: 

• Total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), was down 2.2% compared to May 2025. Excluding the Middle East, demand grew by 0.7%. Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), decreased 2.3% year-on-year. The load factor was 83.5% (+0.1 ppt compared to May 2025), a record high for May.
• International demand fell 1.6% compared to May 2025. Excluding the Middle East, demand grew by 3.1%. Capacity was down 2.4% year-on-year, and the load factor was 83.7% (+0.7 ppt compared to May 2025). 
• Domestic demand contracted 3.1% compared to May 2025. Capacity decreased 2.1% year-on-year. The load factor was 83.0% (-0.8 ppt compared to May 2025).

“Air passenger demand was down 2.2% year-on-year in May on the impact of war in the Middle East. The decline was centered on carriers in the Middle East with a 28.4% year-on-year fall. That’s a significant improvement on the 46.6% decline recorded for April, a sign of the region’s resilience. Notably, we also saw year-on-year contractions in demand in both North America and Asia, largely related to domestic market conditions in the US and China. 

Overall, May demand still appeared to be largely resilient in the face of high fuel prices and air fares. While the recent sharp drop in oil prices is an encouraging development, the challenges created by the war will likely persist for some time. Oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain and it is likely to take time before the benefit of lower oil prices is reflected in ‘normalized’ jet fuel pricing. In the meantime, airlines who are operating on a 2.0% margin will have little choice but to continue testing demand resilience with higher fares that attempt to cover elevated fuel costs,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.  

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CARGO

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for May 2026 global air cargo markets showing: 

• Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), increased by 6.0% compared to May 2025 levels (6.5% for international operations).
• Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), increased by 1.9% compared to May 2025 (2.8% for international operations). 

“Air cargo demand grew 6% year-on-year in May, with Africa, Asia-Pacific, Europe, and North American regions all reporting above trend growth. Carriers in the Middle East, however, reported a combined contraction of 8.9% year-on-year as war-related impacts continued. 

May’s strong performance coupled with macro-economic factors give cautious optimism for air cargo’s prospects over the remainder of the year. Trade and manufacturing output are both growing. Airlines have adapted operations to align with shifting demand patterns and supply chain needs. Meanwhile, yield growth and higher load factors are helping to recoup higher fuel costs. It’s still a tough year, particularly as Middle East uncertainties weigh heavily on parts of the industry, but robust demand and airline resilience are clear,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

Several factors in the operating environment should be noted: 

• Global trade increased by 5.0% year-on-year, extending 25 months of consecutive annual growth.
• Jet fuel prices fell by 16.3% month-on-month in May but remained 93.5% above year-earlier levels.
• Global manufacturing activity remained supportive in May, but export orders weakened. The Global Manufacturing Output Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 53.5, while the New Export Orders Index stayed below the 50-mark at 49.6, suggesting air cargo growth was supported by selected trade flows rather than a broad-based rise in global exports.

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