IATA: March Passenger Demand Up 2.1% But Sharp Regional Differences; Middle East Disruption Impacts Cargo Markets, Demand Falls 4.8% in March

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for March 2026 global passenger demand:
 

• Total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), was up 2.1% compared to March 2025. Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK), decreased 1.7% year-on-year. The load factor was 83.6% (+3.1 ppt compared to March 2025).
• International demand fell -0.6% compared to March 2025. Capacity was down -6.2% year-on-year, and the load factor was 84.1% (+4.7 ppt compared to March 2025). The overall decline in international traffic was led by a -60.8% fall in traffic by carriers in the Middle East.
• Domestic demand increased 6.5% compared to March 2025. Capacity increased 5.6% year-on-year. The load factor was 83.0% (+0.7 ppt compared to March 2025).

“Demand for air travel continued to grow in March despite disruptions in the Middle East. The nearly 61% decline in international traffic by carriers in the Middle East did, however, restrain global growth to 2.1%. Outside of the Middle East demand grew by 8%,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

“Everybody’s watching what’s happening with jet fuel—both supply and pricing. On the supply side, over the next months we could see shortages in parts of the world with high dependence on supplies from the Gulf, especially Asia and Europe. And the extraordinarily high cost of jet fuel is increasingly being reflected in ticket prices. While this has not impacted March traffic or forward bookings to date, it remains to be seen at what point high prices could start to shift passenger behavior. So far, the summer is shaping up to be a normally busy time for travel. That’s positive news, but airline resilience is being tested and stabilizing the supply and price of fuel is crucial. In the meantime, it’s important for regulators to be prepared to grant airlines some flexibility on slots considering the extraordinary circumstances of airspace capacity restrictions and potential fuel rationing,” said Walsh. 

> Read the latest Passenger Market Analysis

CARGO

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for March 2026 global air cargo markets showing:
 

• Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), fell by 4.8% compared to March 2025 levels (-5.5% for international operations).
• Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), decreased by 4.7% compared to March 2025 (-6.8% for international operations). 

“Air cargo demand fell 4.8% in March compared to the previous year. This was mostly due to severe disruptions at major Gulf hubs due to war in the Middle East. The timing of the usual post–Lunar New Year slowdown also added to the decline. The underlying demand trends, at this point, appear strong and the recent World Trade Organization and International Monetary Fund revisions to trade and GDP projections continue to see growth in 2026. Importantly, air cargo networks are providing the flexibility needed to support global supply chains as they adjust to geopolitical, tariff, and operational strains. All eyes are on fuel supply and price, which are expected to test the industry’s resilience in the coming months,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

Several factors in the operating environment should be noted:
 

• Global industrial production grew by 3.1% year-on-year in February, marking the 38th consecutive month of expansion. The global goods trade rose by 8.0% year-on-year in February. 
• Jet fuel prices rose sharply in March, up 106.6% year-on-year, alongside a 43.1% increase in crude oil prices and a 320% surge in refining margins.

Global manufacturing sentiment remained in growth territory in March, easing slightly from February. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) stood at 51.4. The PMI for new export orders was 50.1—both above the 50-point expansion threshold—signaling positive conditions for air cargo demand.

> Read the latest Air Cargo Market Analysis