Osprey Issues Aviation Risk Alerts on Russian Airspace and Middle East Escalation

Osprey Flight Solutions has issued two Alerts to clients yesterday, following fast-moving developments in Eastern Europe and the Middle East:

1. Russian airspace declared unsafe for airlines by President Zelensky (Link to Alert)

2. A new round of US strikes against Iranian military targets along the Persian Gulf (Link to Alert)

RUSSIA / UKRAINE: AIRSPACE WARNING

Yesterday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declared that Russian airspace is becoming unsafe for airlines still operating within it, warning that the scale of Ukrainian drone activity must now be taken into account by carriers, insurers and governments.

Osprey Analysis:

Ukraine is expected to continue conducting drone, missile and/or rocket launches into Russian territory multiple times a day through 2026. While the majority of these strikes are likely to occur within 300km (186 miles) of the border, daily attacks deeper inside Russia are near certain through 2026, including near Moscow and St Petersburg. Russian military air defences – including conventional surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems capable at all altitudes – are likely to be activated in response to incoming Ukrainian armed forces drones/missiles that threaten population centres and/or critical infrastructure going forward.

Osprey assesses that the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) is likely not reliably disclosing the total number of drones downed in Russian airspace, nor giving a complete picture of where drone attacks, downings and associated air-defence activity are occurring. There is a continued discrepancy between the locations reported by the MoD and the airport disruption reported by the Russian Federal Air Transport Agency during drone and air-defence activity. Further discrepancies exist between the MoD's reported locations and the regions named in both official and unofficial reports of drone impacts, damage and downings.

MIDDLE EAST: NEW STRIKES ON IRANIAN MILITARY TARGETS

The US has conducted a new round of strikes against Iranian military targets along the Persian Gulf.

Osprey Analysis

Osprey assesses it is likely that Iran and Iraq-based, Iranian-backed militant groups (IBMGs) will respond by conducting drone and/or missile launches against US military and/or civilian critical infrastructure targets in the Middle East in the near term. Primary focus areas are Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain; secondary focus areas are Syria, the UAE, Qatar, Oman and Saudi Arabia. Egypt and Israel remain tertiary focus areas.

Osprey also assesses it is likely that the US will conduct further strikes in Iran in the near term, predominantly against Iranian military targets along the Strait of Hormuz, Persian Gulf and/or Gulf of Oman, though targeting of Iranian civilian critical infrastructure is also possible.