NAV CANADA Study Projects Drones Will Reshape Canada’s Low-Level Airspace, Economy and Daily Life

A new market study commissioned by NAV CANADA projects that remotely piloted aircraft systems (RPAS) – commonly known as drones – and advanced air mobility (AAM) could become one of Canada’s most dynamic and fast-growing aviation sectors over the next two decades, unlocking tens of billions of dollars in annual economic activity.

“The scale of economic opportunity highlighted in this study confirms that Canada is entering a new era of aviation,” said Mark Cooper, President and Chief Executive Officer at NAV CANADA. “To seize that potential, Canada’s key players need to be ready – by investing in the infrastructure, regulatory frameworks, and partnerships that will enable safe integration of new airspace users. Canada has a unique opportunity to lead globally, and the work starts now.”

The study forecasts a significant expansion in the number of aircraft operating in the use cases it captures, from approximately 24,000 in 2024 to 507,000 by 2045. While most operations occur within the line of sight of the pilot, in the next decade most will be Beyond Visual Line of Sight (BVLOS) devices – an indication that drones will be travelling further, requiring more extensive traffic management.

By the year 2045, the RPAS Traffic Management (RTM) system is projected to handle roughly 19 million operations, equating to more than 50,000 operations daily. However, the study anticipates operations of more than 21 million drone and AAM flights by this time, requiring additional investment to increase the system to meet projected demands and seize the potential of this growing sector.

According to the study, the growth of the RPAS has the potential to make Canada safer, healthier, and better-connected. In fact, by 2045, Canadians skies are projected to see:

• Health care: 350,000 yearly health-care deliveries, including pathology samples, blood, organs, prescription medicine, and other medical goods
• Public safety: Around 15,000 RPAS assisting with law enforcement, border surveillance, emergency management, and disaster management
• Transportation: 150,000 RPAS passenger transportation operations, including tourism, commute, and health-care applications
• Consumer goods: 4.9 million consumer goods delivery flights, including food, grocery, parcels, and e-commerce

According to the study, the RPAS and AAM sectors contributed between $2.4 billion and $3.6 billion CAD to Canada’s GDP in 2024, supporting more than 30,000 jobs nationwide. By 2045, that contribution is forecast to grow more than twentyfold, reaching over $69 billion CAD and creating more than 290,000 new jobs as demand accelerates for data processing, logistics, infrastructure inspection, and remote flight operations. To meet this growth, skilled and educated local workforces will be required, supporting universities and research, and local businesses development.

“Integrating millions of uncrewed and advanced air mobility flights will require resilient digital infrastructure, adaptive traffic-management frameworks, and tighter data exchange between operators, regulators and NAV CANADA,” said David Sheppard, Vice President and Chief Technology and Information Officer at NAV CANADA. “This study sets out the scale of that challenge and highlights the work now underway to ensure these technologies can be safely and efficiently integrated into Canadian airspace.”

Canadian businesses also stand to benefit. Currently, construction, infrastructure, and real estate account for 45 per cent of operations and 39 per cent of total aircraft. However, transportation and logistics is expected to be the dominant sector by 2045, particularly with the rise of drone delivery services, which will lead to a significant increase in the number of aircraft operating simultaneously.

Beyond recreational flying, 97 per cent of operations are expected to deliver measurable business value, improving efficiency and safety across sectors such as construction, energy and mining. In fact, the study shows that automated solutions can achieve cost savings of 50-70 per cent when implemented on-site.

Through continued innovation and close collaboration with partners such as Transport Canada (TC), the Canadian Advanced Air Mobility (CAAM), and the Aerial Evolution Association of Canada (AEAC), NAV CANADA is helping shape a future where drones and advanced air mobility seamlessly integrate into daily life, drive economic growth, and keep Canada’s skies among the safest in the world.

Read the full study here